Forecast Accuracy
We compare our Not Crowded→Super Crowded forecast to an observed score derived from daily median posted standby waits for Disneyland, Disney California Adventure, Knott’s, and Universal Studios Hollywood.
This page does not invent accuracy percentages. Metrics below are computed from the raw table — when history is thin, we say so. We are not claiming Disney attendance.
Summary Metrics
Computed from the same predicted vs observed rows below. Bias = mean (forecast − observed); positive means the model was too busy. Sample is still modest — we show real numbers, not marketing accuracy claims.
Date range: 2026-08-27 → 2026-09-24 · rows: 109
Overall
- Exact-tier: 35.8%
- Within one tier: 84.4%
- MAE: 0.81
- Bias: +0.24 (positive = model too busy)
- Sample: n=109 · 2026-08-27 → 2026-09-24
Disneyland
- Exact-tier: 24.1%
- Within one tier: 75.9%
- MAE: 1
- Bias: +0.38 (positive = model too busy)
- Sample: n=29 · 2026-08-27 → 2026-09-24
California Adventure
- Exact-tier: 41.4%
- Within one tier: 82.8%
- MAE: 0.79
- Bias: +0.31 (positive = model too busy)
- Sample: n=29 · 2026-08-27 → 2026-09-24
Knott’s
- Exact-tier: 50.0%
- Within one tier: 90.9%
- MAE: 0.59
- Bias: +0.41 (positive = model too busy)
- Sample: n=22 · 2026-08-27 → 2026-09-24
Universal Hollywood
- Exact-tier: 31%
- Within one tier: 89.7%
- MAE: 0.79
- Bias: -0.1 (negative = model under-predicts crowds)
- Sample: n=29 · 2026-08-27 → 2026-09-24
Weekday Calibration Status
Calibration vs evaluation. The multipliers below were derived from observed wait aggregates through 2026-09-25. The predicted-vs-observed table covers 2026-08-27 → 2026-09-24, which overlaps the calibration window — read these metrics as a consistency check, not a true out-of-sample forecast test. We do not claim predictive accuracy beyond what this overlap allows. Next step: freeze each day’s forecast before the date, then score it against observations on data the calibration never saw.
- disneyland — Sun…Sat relative multipliers: 1, 1, 1.12, 1.11, 1.12, 1, 1.08 (updated 2026-09-25)
- california-adventure — Sun…Sat relative multipliers: 1, 1.12, 0.97, 1.12, 1, 1.08, 1.08 (updated 2026-09-25)
- knotts — Sun…Sat relative multipliers: 1.08, 0.93, 0.85, 1, 1, 1.08, 1.08 (updated 2026-09-25)
- universal-hollywood — Sun…Sat relative multipliers: 1.08, 1.12, 0.88, 1, 1.07, 1, 1.08 (updated 2026-09-25)
Recent Predicted vs Observed
Powered by ThemeParks.wiki — observed medians from daily standby history. Not official attendance.
Data quality rule: a day only counts as an observation if the feed reports waits for at least 5 attractions with 20+ snapshots across 4+ operating hours. Days that fail this bar (feed gaps, park closures, sparse data) are marked Insufficient data and excluded from the metrics above — a 0-minute median is never treated as a genuine “Not Crowded” observation.
| Date | Park | Forecast tier / score | Observed score | Observed median wait | Error (forecast − observed) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-24 | Universal Studios Hollywood | Not Crowded (1) | 2 | 23 min | -1 |
| 2026-09-24 | Knott's Berry Farm | Not Crowded (1) | — | Insufficient data | — |
| 2026-09-24 | Disney California Adventure | Not Crowded (1) | 1 | 10 min | 0 |
| 2026-09-24 | Disneyland Park | Not Crowded (1) | 2 | 20 min | -1 |
| 2026-09-23 | Universal Studios Hollywood | Not Crowded (1) | 3 | 28 min | -2 |
| 2026-09-23 | Disney California Adventure | Not Crowded (1) | 3 | 30 min | -2 |
| 2026-09-23 | Disneyland Park | Not Crowded (1) | 2 | 15 min | -1 |
| 2026-09-22 | Universal Studios Hollywood | Not Crowded (1) | 2 | 15 min | -1 |
| 2026-09-22 | Disney California Adventure | Not Crowded (1) | 1 | 10 min | 0 |
| 2026-09-22 | Disneyland Park | Not Crowded (1) | 2 | 20 min | -1 |
| 2026-09-21 | Universal Studios Hollywood | Not Crowded (1) | 3 | 30 min | -2 |
| 2026-09-21 | Knott's Berry Farm | Not Crowded (1) | — | Insufficient data | — |
| 2026-09-21 | Disney California Adventure | Not Crowded (1) | 3 | 30 min | -2 |
| 2026-09-21 | Disneyland Park | Not Crowded (1) | 3 | 30 min | -2 |
| 2026-09-20 | Universal Studios Hollywood | Crowded (3) | 3 | 30 min | 0 |
| 2026-09-20 | Knott's Berry Farm | Crowded (3) | 1 | 5 min | 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | Disney California Adventure | A Little Crowded (2) | 2 | 13 min | 0 |
| 2026-09-20 | Disneyland Park | A Little Crowded (2) | 1 | 10 min | 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | Universal Studios Hollywood | Crowded (3) | 3 | 28 min | 0 |
| 2026-09-19 | Knott's Berry Farm | Crowded (3) | 2 | 15 min | 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | Disney California Adventure | Crowded (3) | 2 | 20 min | 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | Disneyland Park | Crowded (3) | 2 | 15 min | 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | Universal Studios Hollywood | A Little Crowded (2) | 3 | 30 min | -1 |
| 2026-09-18 | Knott's Berry Farm | A Little Crowded (2) | 2 | 15 min | 0 |
| 2026-09-18 | Disney California Adventure | A Little Crowded (2) | 2 | 15 min | 0 |
| 2026-09-18 | Disneyland Park | A Little Crowded (2) | 1 | 10 min | 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | Universal Studios Hollywood | Not Crowded (1) | 2 | 18 min | -1 |
| 2026-09-17 | Knott's Berry Farm | Not Crowded (1) | 1 | 5 min | 0 |
| 2026-09-17 | Disney California Adventure | Not Crowded (1) | 1 | 10 min | 0 |
| 2026-09-17 | Disneyland Park | Not Crowded (1) | 2 | 15 min | -1 |
| 2026-09-16 | Universal Studios Hollywood | Not Crowded (1) | 2 | 15 min | -1 |
| 2026-09-16 | Knott's Berry Farm | Not Crowded (1) | — | Insufficient data | — |
| 2026-09-16 | Disney California Adventure | Not Crowded (1) | 2 | 25 min | -1 |
| 2026-09-16 | Disneyland Park | Not Crowded (1) | 2 | 15 min | -1 |
| 2026-09-15 | Universal Studios Hollywood | Not Crowded (1) | 1 | 10 min | 0 |
| 2026-09-15 | Knott's Berry Farm | Not Crowded (1) | 1 | 5 min | 0 |
| 2026-09-15 | Disney California Adventure | Not Crowded (1) | 1 | 8 min | 0 |
| 2026-09-15 | Disneyland Park | Not Crowded (1) | 2 | 15 min | -1 |
| 2026-09-14 | Universal Studios Hollywood | Not Crowded (1) | 2 | 15 min | -1 |
| 2026-09-14 | Knott's Berry Farm | Not Crowded (1) | 1 | 3 min | 0 |
| 2026-09-14 | Disney California Adventure | Not Crowded (1) | 2 | 15 min | -1 |
| 2026-09-14 | Disneyland Park | Not Crowded (1) | 1 | 10 min | 0 |
| 2026-09-13 | Universal Studios Hollywood | Crowded (3) | 2 | 20 min | 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | Knott's Berry Farm | Crowded (3) | 3 | 30 min | 0 |
| 2026-09-13 | Disney California Adventure | A Little Crowded (2) | 1 | 10 min | 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | Disneyland Park | A Little Crowded (2) | 1 | 10 min | 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | Universal Studios Hollywood | Crowded (3) | 2 | 25 min | 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | Knott's Berry Farm | Crowded (3) | 3 | 30 min | 0 |
| 2026-09-12 | Disney California Adventure | Crowded (3) | 1 | 10 min | 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | Disneyland Park | Crowded (3) | 1 | 10 min | 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | Universal Studios Hollywood | A Little Crowded (2) | 2 | 15 min | 0 |
| 2026-09-11 | Knott's Berry Farm | A Little Crowded (2) | 1 | 8 min | 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | Disney California Adventure | A Little Crowded (2) | 1 | 5 min | 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | Disneyland Park | A Little Crowded (2) | 1 | 10 min | 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | Universal Studios Hollywood | Not Crowded (1) | 2 | 20 min | -1 |
| 2026-09-10 | Knott's Berry Farm | Not Crowded (1) | 2 | 15 min | -1 |
| 2026-09-10 | Disney California Adventure | Not Crowded (1) | 1 | 8 min | 0 |
| 2026-09-10 | Disneyland Park | Not Crowded (1) | 1 | 5 min | 0 |
| 2026-09-09 | Universal Studios Hollywood | A Little Crowded (2) | 1 | 5 min | 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | Knott's Berry Farm | A Little Crowded (2) | 1 | 5 min | 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | Disney California Adventure | Crowded (3) | 1 | 10 min | 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | Disneyland Park | Crowded (3) | 1 | 10 min | 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | Universal Studios Hollywood | A Little Crowded (2) | 1 | 10 min | 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | Knott's Berry Farm | A Little Crowded (2) | — | Insufficient data | — |
| 2026-09-08 | Disney California Adventure | A Little Crowded (2) | 1 | 10 min | 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | Disneyland Park | Crowded (3) | 2 | 15 min | 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | Universal Studios Hollywood | Crowded (3) | 3 | 35 min | 0 |
| 2026-09-07 | Knott's Berry Farm | Crowded (3) | 4 | 45 min | -1 |
| 2026-09-07 | Disney California Adventure | Crowded (3) | 2 | 20 min | 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | Disneyland Park | Crowded (3) | 1 | 10 min | 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | Universal Studios Hollywood | Super Crowded (4) | 3 | 33 min | 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | Knott's Berry Farm | Super Crowded (4) | 2 | 20 min | 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | Disney California Adventure | Super Crowded (4) | 1 | 10 min | 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | Disneyland Park | Super Crowded (4) | 2 | 20 min | 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | Universal Studios Hollywood | Super Crowded (4) | 2 | 23 min | 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | Knott's Berry Farm | Super Crowded (4) | 3 | 30 min | 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | Disney California Adventure | Super Crowded (4) | 3 | 30 min | 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | Disneyland Park | Super Crowded (4) | 2 | 15 min | 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | Universal Studios Hollywood | A Little Crowded (2) | 2 | 15 min | 0 |
| 2026-09-04 | Knott's Berry Farm | A Little Crowded (2) | 2 | 15 min | 0 |
| 2026-09-04 | Disney California Adventure | A Little Crowded (2) | 2 | 15 min | 0 |
| 2026-09-04 | Disneyland Park | A Little Crowded (2) | 2 | 15 min | 0 |
| 2026-09-03 | Universal Studios Hollywood | Not Crowded (1) | 1 | 10 min | 0 |
| 2026-09-03 | Knott's Berry Farm | Not Crowded (1) | 1 | 5 min | 0 |
| 2026-09-03 | Disney California Adventure | Not Crowded (1) | 1 | 10 min | 0 |
| 2026-09-03 | Disneyland Park | Not Crowded (1) | 2 | 15 min | -1 |
| 2026-09-02 | Universal Studios Hollywood | Not Crowded (1) | 2 | 15 min | -1 |
| 2026-09-02 | Knott's Berry Farm | Not Crowded (1) | 1 | 5 min | 0 |
| 2026-09-02 | Disney California Adventure | Not Crowded (1) | 2 | 20 min | -1 |
| 2026-09-02 | Disneyland Park | Not Crowded (1) | 1 | 10 min | 0 |
| 2026-09-01 | Universal Studios Hollywood | Not Crowded (1) | 1 | 5 min | 0 |
| 2026-09-01 | Knott's Berry Farm | Not Crowded (1) | — | Insufficient data | — |
| 2026-09-01 | Disney California Adventure | Not Crowded (1) | 1 | 5 min | 0 |
| 2026-09-01 | Disneyland Park | Not Crowded (1) | 1 | 8 min | 0 |
| 2026-08-31 | Universal Studios Hollywood | Not Crowded (1) | 1 | 10 min | 0 |
| 2026-08-31 | Knott's Berry Farm | Not Crowded (1) | 1 | 5 min | 0 |
| 2026-08-31 | Disney California Adventure | Not Crowded (1) | 1 | 10 min | 0 |
| 2026-08-31 | Disneyland Park | Not Crowded (1) | 1 | 5 min | 0 |
| 2026-08-30 | Universal Studios Hollywood | Crowded (3) | 2 | 13 min | 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | Knott's Berry Farm | Crowded (3) | 2 | 15 min | 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | Disney California Adventure | A Little Crowded (2) | 1 | 8 min | 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | Disneyland Park | A Little Crowded (2) | 1 | 5 min | 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | Universal Studios Hollywood | Crowded (3) | 2 | 23 min | 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | Knott's Berry Farm | Crowded (3) | 2 | 15 min | 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | Disney California Adventure | Crowded (3) | 2 | 15 min | 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | Disneyland Park | Crowded (3) | 1 | 10 min | 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | Universal Studios Hollywood | A Little Crowded (2) | 1 | 10 min | 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | Knott's Berry Farm | A Little Crowded (2) | 1 | 5 min | 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | Disney California Adventure | A Little Crowded (2) | 1 | 10 min | 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | Disneyland Park | A Little Crowded (2) | 1 | 10 min | 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | Universal Studios Hollywood | Not Crowded (1) | 2 | 15 min | -1 |
| 2026-08-27 | Knott's Berry Farm | Not Crowded (1) | 1 | 5 min | 0 |
| 2026-08-27 | Disney California Adventure | Not Crowded (1) | 1 | 10 min | 0 |
| 2026-08-27 | Disneyland Park | Not Crowded (1) | 1 | 5 min | 0 |
Observed score is a coarse map from median posted standby (≤12 Not Crowded … >40 Super Crowded). It is a diagnostic, not a claim of gate attendance.